Analisis Peramalan Terbaik pada Produksi dan Impor Kakao di Indonesia Tahun 2022-2026 dengan Metode Triple Holt-Winters dan ARIMA

Abstract

This research aims to analyze and choose the best method, to determine and describe the results of forecasting cocoa production and import the results of forecasting cocoa production and import in Indonesia from 2022 to 2026. This type of research is developmental research, focusing on studying patterns or sequences of changes over time. The secondary data are in the form of a time series and are univariate, comprising actual data on cocoa production and import from January 2017 to December 2021 totaling 120 data points. In this research, both descriptive analysis and econometric analysis were conducted. Econometric analysis includes time series data forecasting methods using the Triple Holt-Winters and ARIMA methods. The results of the research show that the best forecasting method for cocoa production in Indonesia from 2022 to 2026 is the ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,0,0)12 method with an RMSE value of 3781, while the best forecasting method for cocoa import in Indonesia from 2022 to 2026 is the ARIMA (1,0,0) method with RMSE values of 4563. The results of the forecasting analysis indicate that the volume of cocoa production from 2022 to 2026 is projected to increase. In addition, the volume of cocoa import from 2022 to 2026 is expected to rise in 2022 and remain constant until 2026. This implies that the implementation of several cocoa sustainability program policies is projected to influence the increase in cocoa production and suppress import to Indonesia.