Pengaruh Desentralisasi Fiskal, Dana Perimbangan, Bantuan Keuangan Provinsi, dan Investasi Publik terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dengan Jumlah Penduduk sebagai Variabel Pemoderasi pada Pemerintahan Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the partial and simultaneous effects of Fiscal Decentralization, Inter-Governmental Transfers, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment on the Human Development Index. Additionally, this research also examines the influence of Fiscal Decentralization, Inter-Governmental Transfers, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment on the Human Development Index with Population Size as a moderating variable. The population of this study consists of District/City Governments in North Sumatra Province, totaling 33 Districts/Cities.

Data collection method was conducted using documentation technique utilizing secondary data such as Budget Realization Reports, Population Data, and Human Development Index data from 2017 to 2021. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling based on specific criteria, resulting in 145 observation units. Data analysis methods employed in this study include descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, hypothesis testing, and residual tests using SPSS version 25.

The results of this study indicate that Fiscal Decentralization, Inter- Governmental Transfers, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment simultaneously influence the Human Development Index. Partially, Fiscal Decentralization and Provincial Financial Assistance have a positive effect on the Human Development Index. Inter-Governmental Transfers have a negative effect on the Human Development Index, while Public Investment does not affect the Human Development Index. This study also concludes that Population Size acts as a moderating variable, strengthening and weakening the relationship between Fiscal Decentralization, Inter-Governmental Transfers, Provincial Financial Assistance, Public Investment, and the Human Development Index.