Analisis Tingkat Curah Hujan dan Banyak Hari Hujan di Sampali Tahun 2020 – 2022 Menggunakan Pemodelan Copula Clayton Archimedian

Abstract

Rainfall is an important parameter in various fields such as agriculture, hydrology, civil engineering, and disaster management. In the Sampali region of North Sumatra, an accurate understanding of rainfall patterns and characteristics is crucial for effective decision-making related to natural resource management and disaster risk mitigation. This study aims to analyze the dependence of rainfall over different time intervals in Sampali using the Archimedean Clayton Copula method, evaluate the effectiveness of the Clayton Copula in depicting the dependence between rainfall variables, and provide a better understanding of extreme weather dependence patterns and their relevance for adaptation in the region. Using secondary rainfall and rainy day data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Sumatra for the years 2020-2022, data analysis was performed using the Archimedean Clayton Copula and Kendall's tau test to evaluate temporal dependence. The results show a positive dependence between rainfall and the number of rainy days in Sampali, and the Clayton Copula successfully modeled the dependence between rainfall variables well, providing valuable insights into extreme weather dependence patterns. This research provides an in-depth understanding of rainfall dependence patterns in Sampali, which is important for disaster-resilient infrastructure planning, sustainable natural resource management, and climate change adaptation, where the analysis results can assist decision-makers in addressing the impacts of extreme rainfall and enhancing the region's resilience.