Perbandingan Ramalan Luas Panen Padi Berdasarkan Kabupaten Kota di Sumatera Utara

Abstract

In order to enter food self-sufficiency, especially rice harvest, it is necessary to forecast the rice harvest area in North Sumatra based on Regency/City. The aim of this research is to compare the results of rice harvest area predictions based on the Least Square and Single Moving Average methods in several districts/cities in North Sumatra. The data used is annual rice harvest area data in districts/cities in North Sumatra from 1998 to 2023. The analytical method used is the Least Square method for forecasting and calculating MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values and the Single Moving Average method for carrying out forecasting and calculating MAPE values. The research results show that the Least Square method has a smaller MAPE value compared to the Single Moving Average method, so the Least Square method is more accurate in predicting rice harvest area in districts/cities in North Sumatra. This research can be used as a consideration for local governments in planning and allocating resources to increase rice farming productivity in North Sumatra.