Peramalan Rata Rata Pengeluaran Perkapita Bukan Makanan di Kabupaten Labuhan Batu, Labuhan Batu Selatan, Labuhan Batu Utara

Abstract

Per Capita Expenditure is one of the indicators to measure the level of community welfare. Non-food Per Capita Expenditure includes all expenditures of the community other than food and drink. Labuhan Batu, Labuhan Batu Selatan, and Labuhan Batu Utara Districts are three districts in North Sumatra Province that have experienced an increase in Non-food Per Capita Expenditure. This study uses the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method to forecast Non-food Per Capita Expenditure in Labuhan Batu, Labuhan Batu Selatan, and Labuhan Batu Utara Districts for the next three years. The appropriate ARIMA method for Labuhan Batu District data is the ARIMA (2,6,2) model, the parameter results obtained are AR(1) = -1.1024, AR(2) = -0.4133, MA(1) = -1.64088, MA(2) = 0.7848. The data for Labuhan Batu Selatan District is the ARIMA (1,6,1) model, the parameter results obtained are AR(1) = -0.7214, MA(1) = -0.9349. The data for Labuhan Batu Utara District is the ARIMA (1,2,1) model, the parameter results obtained are AR(1) = -0.3878, MA(1) = -1. Thus, the forecast for the next three year period starts from 2024-2026.