Prakiraan Persediaan Obat pada Puskesmas Glugur Kota dengan Metode Holt Winters dan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng

Abstract

The process of inventory forecasting is crucial for predicting future needs based on past data. The inventory of Antacid, Clindamycin, and Cetirizine is essential at Glugur City Health Center, necessitating a method to forecast the demand for these medications. The objective of this study is to obtain the forecasted inventory results for these three types of medications at Glugur City Health Center. This study compares and applies two methods, the fuzzy Cheng method and the Holt-Winters method, to forecast the monthly inventory of Antacid, Clindamycin, and Cetirizine for the period from January 2020 to November 2023. The best forecasting method is determined by using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The MAPE value using the fuzzy Cheng method is 15.5%, while with the Holt-Winters method, it is 24.15%. This indicates that the fuzzy Cheng method is the best. Using the fuzzy Cheng method, the medication needs for the period from December 2023 to April 2024 are forecasted.