| dc.description.abstract | Forecasting is an important technique for projecting future values based on historical
data. The Monte Carlo simulation Method is one of the forecasting methods that uses
random numbers, specifically through the use of a Linear Congruential Generator
(LCG) and mathematical equations for prediction, forecasting, estimation, and risk
analysis. The Monte Carlo simulation Method with one iteration has a high level of
accuracy, as evidenced by previous research. The more iterations used, the more
accurate the forecasting results. Therefore, the author is interested in examining how
well the Monte Carlo simulation method with N iterations performs in forecasting. The
study of the Monte Carlo simulation Method with N iterations will be conducted on
the forecast of the number of visitors to Fort Rotterdam. The aim of this research is to
determine the accuracy of the Monte Carlo simulation method with N iterations for
forecasting the number of visitors to Fort Rotterdam. The MAPE values from 2013 to
2018 using the Monte Carlo simulation Method with N iterations sequentially are 16%,
13%, 13%, 12%, 1008%, and 31%. The forecasting ability from 2013 to 2016 falls into
the good category, the forecasting for 2017 falls into the poor category, and the
forecasting for 2018 falls into the fair category. The accuracy of the Monte Carlo
simulation Method with N iterations, where the standard deviation values are higher
than the standard deviation of the data containing outliers in this study, is classified
below the good category. | en_US |
