Analisis Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan terhadap Inflasi: Komparasi antara Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Provinsi Bengkulu

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of price fluctuations of food commodities, namely rice, red chili, bird’s eye chili, shallots, garlic, chicken meat, cooking oil and white sugar on inflation in North Sumatra Province and Bengkulu Province in the short and long term. The data used is monthly time series data from January 2019 to December 2023. The analysis method used is the VAR/VECM model. The results showed that (1) commodity prices that have a significant effect on inflation in North Sumatra Province in the short and long term are red chili, chicken meat and white sugar. While rice and cooking oil have a significant effect in the long term. Food commodity prices explain the diversity of inflation in North Sumatra Province by 64.1 percent. (2) Commodity prices that have a significant effect on inflation in Bengkulu Province in the short term are garlic, in the long term are shallots, red chili, bird’s eye chili and chicken meat, while in the long and short term is white sugar. Food commodity prices explain 59.6 percent of the variation in inflation in Bengkulu Province.