Pengaruh Kenaikan Harga Komoditas Pangan terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of rising food commodity prices on inflation in Medan, focusing on corn, soybean, broiler chicken, and garlic prices. Generally, inflation is the continuous increase in the prices of goods and services over a certain period, which reduces the purchasing power of the public. Food commodities, as essential necessities, often become the main cause of inflation because their price increases are directly felt by consumers. The results of the study show that soybean and broiler chicken prices have a significant long-term relationship with inflation, meaning that these price increases will continue to affect inflation sustainably. In the short term, variables such as corn prices at lag 1, soybean prices at lag 2, broiler chicken prices at lag 1, and general inflation at lag 2 significantly affect current inflation, indicating that prices from the previous year also influence this year's inflation. Additionally, the Granger causality test reveals a one-way causality relationship between corn and soybean prices, corn prices and general inflation, broiler chicken and soybean prices, garlic and soybean prices, soybean prices and general inflation, as well as broiler chicken prices and general inflation. This indicates that the movement of certain commodity prices can cause significant changes in other commodity prices and overall inflation. In conclusion, rising prices of certain food commodities have a significant impact on inflation in Medan, both in the short and long term. Therefore, appropriate policies in managing food commodity prices are crucial to control inflation in the city to maintain economic stability and public welfare. Effectively managing food commodity prices can prevent harmful inflation spikes, so steps like market monitoring, stock control, and price intervention are necessary to keep inflation stable. Effective policies in this regard will positively impact Medan's economy, ensuring affordable food access for the public and supporting sustainable economic growth.