Analisis Penawaran Cabai Merah (Capsicum Annum. L) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Chili in North Sumatra plays a very important role for the government, producers and consumers. Red chilies can help increase regional income in terms of exports and imports. We know that red chilies are able to penetrate the international market both fresh and processed. Availability of planting land, price levels and production costs such as fertilizer prices change every year. This can affect the amount of chili offered in North Sumatra Province. The aim of this research is to determine the influence of independent variables on supply and analyze the short-term and long-term elasticity of red chili supply in North Sumatra Province. The data used in this research is secondary data in the form of a time series starting from 2001 to 2021 (per 6 months). The research method used is distributed lag model analysis. The results of this research are the Prob F-statistic value < significance α = 0.05, namely 0.00001, together with the independent variables in the model, namely the supply of red chilies in the previous year, the price of red chilies (Pct), the price of red chilies in the previous year (Pct -1), the area of the red chili harvest (Lpt), the area of the previous year's red chili harvest and the price of NPK fertilizer (Hpnt) have a real influence on the supply variable, namely the supply of red chilies (ScMT) in North Sumatra Province with a significant α = 5% . The price of red chilies, the price of red chilies in the previous year, the area of the red chili harvest and the area of the red chili harvest in the previous year have a significant effect on the supply of red chilies in North Sumatra Province. Meanwhile, the price of NPK fertilizer with a probability of 0.6420 > α = 0.05 has no real effect because the probability value is < α = 0.05. Variables that have a long-term balance are the supply of red chilies in the previous period (Yt-1), the price of red chilies in the previous period. now (Pct), the previous price of red chilies (Pct-1), and the price of fertilizer for the current period. Meanwhile, the short-term balance variables are the price of red chilies in the previous period (Pct-1), the price of red chilies in the previous period (Pct-1) at lag 1, the price of red chilies in the previous period (Pct-1) at lag 2 and the price of fertilizer for the current period ( HPnt).