Analisis Dampak Utang Luar Negeri terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effects of government sector external debt, private sector external debt, foreign direct investment, inflation, and trade openness on income inequality in Indonesia, over the period from 1994 to 2023. A quantitative approach was employed, utilizing secondary data sourced from the World Bank, Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The collected data were processed and analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results indicate that, in the long run, private sector external debt has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in Indonesia. Government sector external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness have negative and significant effects on income inequality. Inflation has a negative but insignificant effect on income inequality. In the short run, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation (with a two-year lag), and trade openness (with a one-year lag) exhibit positive and significant effects on income inequality. Current-year inflation and one-year lagged inflation have positive but insignificant effects on income inequality. Trade openness in the current year has a negative and significant effect on income inequality. Meanwhile, government sector external debt has a negative and insignificant effect on income inequality in the short run.