Analisis Integrasi Pasar dan Transmisi Harga Beras di Kabupaten Deli Serdang dan Kota Medan

Abstract

Rice is one of the staple foods in Indonesia, especially North Sumatra, whose price fluctuates. The price difference between the producer and consumer levels is quite large where the price movement between the two markets is not balanced. This is a problem for farmers and traders in making production decisions and selling goods. This study aims to analyze the integration between the Medan city rice market and Deli Serdang district at the consumer level and to analyze price transmission between the rice producer market and the consumer rice market in Deli Serdang district. The analytical tool used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) used to analyze the integration between the Medan city rice market and Deli Serdang district and the Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) to analyze the transmission between the rice producer market and the consumer rice market in Deli Serdang district. The data used in this study is monthly time series data for 4 years (48 months) from 2019 to 2022. The results of the analysis conclude that the Medan city consumer rice market is integrated in the short term, but not integrated in the long term. There is no transmission between the price of rice at the producer level and the price of rice at the consumer level in Deli Serdang district. Consumer rice prices respond more quickly to price changes than price changes at the producer level in Deli Serdang district.