Dampak Perubahan Iklim dan Cuaca terhadap Produktivitas Komoditi Rempah Ekspor Sumatera Utara

Abstract

Climate change can have an impact on plants becoming susceptible to disease and farmers experiencing crop failure. The cause of fluctuations in production and productivity in North Sumatra spice crops is due to erratic climate change, which has a major impact on the sustainability of the agricultural sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of Climate Change on spice productivity in North Sumatra province. This study uses panel data analysis with OLS model estimation. The sample used was 60 samples consisting of cross section data, namely 5 North Sumatra spice commodities (Nutmeg, Cloves, Pepper, Cinnamon and Cardamom) and times series data, namely 2010-2021. The results showed that simultaneously the independent variables (Air Humidity, Rainfall, Solar Irradiance, Wind Speed, and temperature) simultaneously affect the dependent variable of spice productivity. Partially, the independent variable of rainfall has a negative and significant effect on the dependent variable of spice productivity. While the variable of solar irradiation has a positive and significant effect on the productivity of North Sumatra spices. The variables of air humidity, wind speed, and temperature have a negative but insignificant effect on the productivity of North Sumatra spices.